223 research outputs found
Hybrid Behaviour of Markov Population Models
We investigate the behaviour of population models written in Stochastic
Concurrent Constraint Programming (sCCP), a stochastic extension of Concurrent
Constraint Programming. In particular, we focus on models from which we can
define a semantics of sCCP both in terms of Continuous Time Markov Chains
(CTMC) and in terms of Stochastic Hybrid Systems, in which some populations are
approximated continuously, while others are kept discrete. We will prove the
correctness of the hybrid semantics from the point of view of the limiting
behaviour of a sequence of models for increasing population size. More
specifically, we prove that, under suitable regularity conditions, the sequence
of CTMC constructed from sCCP programs for increasing population size converges
to the hybrid system constructed by means of the hybrid semantics. We
investigate in particular what happens for sCCP models in which some
transitions are guarded by boolean predicates or in the presence of
instantaneous transitions
Mean-Field approximation and Quasi-Equilibrium reduction of Markov Population Models
Markov Population Model is a commonly used framework to describe stochastic
systems. Their exact analysis is unfeasible in most cases because of the state
space explosion. Approximations are usually sought, often with the goal of
reducing the number of variables. Among them, the mean field limit and the
quasi-equilibrium approximations stand out. We view them as techniques that are
rooted in independent basic principles. At the basis of the mean field limit is
the law of large numbers. The principle of the quasi-equilibrium reduction is
the separation of temporal scales. It is common practice to apply both limits
to an MPM yielding a fully reduced model. Although the two limits should be
viewed as completely independent options, they are applied almost invariably in
a fixed sequence: MF limit first, QE-reduction second. We present a framework
that makes explicit the distinction of the two reductions, and allows an
arbitrary order of their application. By inverting the sequence, we show that
the double limit does not commute in general: the mean field limit of a
time-scale reduced model is not the same as the time-scale reduced limit of a
mean field model. An example is provided to demonstrate this phenomenon.
Sufficient conditions for the two operations to be freely exchangeable are also
provided
Fluid Model Checking of Timed Properties
We address the problem of verifying timed properties of Markovian models of
large populations of interacting agents, modelled as finite state automata. In
particular, we focus on time-bounded properties of (random) individual agents
specified by Deterministic Timed Automata (DTA) endowed with a single clock.
Exploiting ideas from fluid approximation, we estimate the satisfaction
probability of the DTA properties by reducing it to the computation of the
transient probability of a subclass of Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Renewal
Processes with exponentially and deterministically-timed transitions, and a
small state space. For this subclass of models, we show how to derive a set of
Delay Differential Equations (DDE), whose numerical solution provides a fast
and accurate estimate of the satisfaction probability. In the paper, we also
prove the asymptotic convergence of the approach, and exemplify the method on a
simple epidemic spreading model. Finally, we also show how to construct a
system of DDEs to efficiently approximate the average number of agents that
satisfy the DTA specification
Learning and Designing Stochastic Processes from Logical Constraints
Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and
reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises
that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the
system's dynamics must be known exactly. As this is seldom the case, many
methods have been devised over the last decade to infer (learn) such parameters
from observations of the state of the system. In this paper, we depart from
this approach by assuming that our observations are {\it qualitative}
properties encoded as satisfaction of linear temporal logic formulae, as
opposed to quantitative observations of the state of the system. An important
feature of this approach is that it unifies naturally the system identification
and the system design problems, where the properties, instead of observations,
represent requirements to be satisfied. We develop a principled statistical
estimation procedure based on maximising the likelihood of the system's
parameters, using recent ideas from statistical machine learning. We
demonstrate the efficacy and broad applicability of our method on a range of
simple but non-trivial examples, including rumour spreading in social networks
and hybrid models of gene regulation
Fluid Model Checking
In this paper we investigate a potential use of fluid approximation
techniques in the context of stochastic model checking of CSL formulae. We
focus on properties describing the behaviour of a single agent in a (large)
population of agents, exploiting a limit result known also as fast simulation.
In particular, we will approximate the behaviour of a single agent with a
time-inhomogeneous CTMC which depends on the environment and on the other
agents only through the solution of the fluid differential equation. We will
prove the asymptotic correctness of our approach in terms of satisfiability of
CSL formulae and of reachability probabilities. We will also present a
procedure to model check time-inhomogeneous CTMC against CSL formulae
Don't Just Go with the Flow: Cautionary Tales of Fluid Flow Approximation
Fluid flow approximation allows efficient analysis of large scale PEPA models. Given a model, this method outputs how the mean, variance, and any other moment of the model's stochastic behaviour evolves as a function of time. We investigate whether the method's results, i.e. moments of the behaviour, are sufficient to capture system's actual dynamics.
We ran a series of experiments on a client-server model. For some parametrizations of the model, the model's behaviour can accurately be characterized by the fluid flow approximations of its moments. However, the experiments show that for some other parametrizations, these moments are not sufficient to capture the model's behaviour, highlighting a pitfall of relying only on the results of fluid flow analysis. The results suggest that the sufficiency of the fluid flow method for the analysis of a model depends on the model's concrete parametrization. They also make it clear that the existing criteria for deciding on the sufficiency of the fluid flow method are not robust
A temporal logic approach to modular design of synthetic biological circuits
We present a new approach for the design of a synthetic biological circuit
whose behaviour is specified in terms of signal temporal logic (STL) formulae.
We first show how to characterise with STL formulae the input/output behaviour
of biological modules miming the classical logical gates (AND, NOT, OR). Hence,
we provide the regions of the parameter space for which these specifications
are satisfied. Given a STL specification of the target circuit to be designed
and the networks of its constituent components, we propose a methodology to
constrain the behaviour of each module, then identifying the subset of the
parameter space in which those constraints are satisfied, providing also a
measure of the robustness for the target circuit design. This approach, which
leverages recent results on the quantitative semantics of Signal Temporal
Logic, is illustrated by synthesising a biological implementation of an
half-adder
Hybrid performance modelling of opportunistic networks
We demonstrate the modelling of opportunistic networks using the process
algebra stochastic HYPE. Network traffic is modelled as continuous flows,
contact between nodes in the network is modelled stochastically, and
instantaneous decisions are modelled as discrete events. Our model describes a
network of stationary video sensors with a mobile ferry which collects data
from the sensors and delivers it to the base station. We consider different
mobility models and different buffer sizes for the ferries. This case study
illustrates the flexibility and expressive power of stochastic HYPE. We also
discuss the software that enables us to describe stochastic HYPE models and
simulate them.Comment: In Proceedings QAPL 2012, arXiv:1207.055
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